Dealing with the Darned Dragon-IV: Exercising (with) the Nuclear Option

Four days from now, September the 26th will mark the 37th anniversary of an event that, beyond a sliver of doubt, averted a nuclear war. On that day in 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Soviet Air Defence Forces was the duty officer at Serpukhov-15, the secret command centre outside Moscow monitoring its early-warning satellites over the United States when alarms went off––computers warned that five Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles had been launched from an American base.

Colonel Petrov was a very important link in the decision-making chain. His superiors reported to the general staff, who would consult the Soviet leader, Mr Yuri V Andropov on launching a retaliatory attack. Since there was no rule about how long the observers were allowed to think before they reported a strike, Petrov took his sweet time absorbing the deluge of incoming information and ‘felt’ that the launch reports were ‘probably’ a false alarm. He, therefore, reported ‘a system malfunction’. “I had a funny feeling in my gut,” he told a newspaper later. “I didn’t want to make a mistake. I made a decision, and that was it.”

Petrov’s nuclear dilemma

Every second of delay on that day took away valuable time that the Soviet military and political leadership would have needed to absorb the inputs and react. Petrov told an interviewer, “… I couldn’t move. I felt like I was sitting on a hot frying pan.” It was at best a 50-50 guess, based on his distrust of the early-warning system and the relative paucity of missiles that were launched. He could afford the luxury of sleeping mulling over the inputs because 25 long minutes would elapse between launch and detonation. Petrov attributed his judgment to his training and his intuition. He had been told that a nuclear first strike by the Americans would come in the form of an overwhelming onslaught.

Training and Intuition… where does India stand?

A typical military exercise––conducted at many of the military training institutes/ colleges/ establishments––has a Blue Force (India) and a Red Force (the adversary––Pakistan or China, implied or explicit). The exercises are realistic with full freedom to the participating officers––with 3 to 30 years of commissioned service; sometimes, including bureaucrats, diplomats and scientists––to let go of their imagination to plan and execute military operations until… someone in the Red Force threatens to use the nukes.

The exercise is paused and the director of the exercise (or the umpire) steps in and enlightens the attendees. Put in different words and with varying intensity, depending on the personality of the guru, the gist of what is repeatedly sermonised and hammered into the craniums of the participants is: “Like India, China has a No-First-Use (NFU) policy––therefore, use of a nuclear weapon by China against India is not a likely proposition. As regards Pakistan, although their leadership talks and acts insanely, they are not mad. Nuclear sabre rattling by Pakistan is, but a hollow threat. Pakistan cannot dare to strike India with a nuclear-tipped missile because even with a ‘second strike’ option, India has the capability to turn the whole of Pakistan into rubble…. We can cause unacceptable damage to any adversary if we are struck with nukes….”

The punch line delivered (invariably) with theatrical emphasis and the air of a political leader seeking to hold a moral high ground at a peace conference at the UN General Assembly reads somewhat:

“Nuclear weapons are not meant for fighting; they are there (only) for deterrence.”

This has now been going on for decades since the legendary Mr K Subrahmanyam drew up the draft of India’s Nuclear Doctrine, which communicated, along with India’s NFU status, the spirit that:

“Nuclear weapons are the weapons of last resort; they’ll be used only in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian Territory or on Indian forces anywhere.”

As can be seen, there is a subtle difference between what the genius, Mr Subrahmanyam enunciated and what the later gurus interpreted, communicated and taught to the lesser mortals––the military personnel and the scientists––people who would be expected to ‘handle’ the nukes when ordained by the political leadership. Over the years, the people, who would some day play Colonel Petrov in India’s case; have been getting inoculated with a different vaccine than should have been ideally prescribed.

An ambiguity at a crucial moment––nuclear weapons being weapons of last resort or being meant only for deterrence––borne out of years of training, can cost India dear because it would take just about five to ten minutes from a launch (in Pakistan or China) to detonation (in India). In a situation like Petrov’s, Indians would not afford the luxury of time. It is therefore, imperative that people who would some day be in the decision making chain and those who would be executing a political big decision (particularly the men in uniform and the scientists) be educated and trained to act decisively without dithering like Colonel Petrov.

Need to unlearn and re-learn

The need to unlearn and relearn the nuances of the Indian Nuclear Doctrine is also mandated by the recent behaviour of our neighbours. Let’s look at it this way. Pakistan knows that its nuclear sabre rattling does not perturb India, for India has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff twice recently––one, by carrying out surgical strikes across the border after Uri terror attack; and two, by executing airstrikes against terror camps at Balakot in response to the Pulwama Terror Attack. In both those cases, Imran Khan first blabbered about the heightening tensions and the possibility of ‘inadvertent’ use of nukes, then ate a humble pie.

Humiliated at home and abroad on those counts, and coupled with a messed up economy and a battered national prestige (because of Pakistan’s terror links), the Khan is vulnerable to arm-twisting by three agencies––Pakistan Military; Pakistan-based terror outfits; and a Shylock-like China, whose debt makes Pakistan cringe. China is capable of using several levers to instigate its stooge, Pakistan to surprise India. Considering these mounting pressures, the cricketer turned puppet of a politician, might be forced to reconsider and carry out his nuclear bluff. The probability, although infinitely low, is not equal to zero. Therefore, it would be prudent on India’s part to cater for a ‘mistaken’ use of a nuke by Imran’s Pakistan.

To sum up, security, and nuclear security in particular, is a dynamic concept; its doctrines and understanding of the same by every link in the chain needs periodic review and refreshing. Exercising realistically with the nuclear option will convey a stronger ‘resolve’ to the adversaries and work as a more meaningful deterrence without changing anything on the ground.

Related Posts

Dealing with the Darned Dragon: Preface

Dealing with the Darned Dragon-I: Border Infrastructure

Dealing with the Darned Dragon-II: Escape Hatch

Dealing with the Darned Dragon-III: A Lesson from Pearl Harbour

Dealing with the Darned Dragon-V: Time to Kowtow!?

10 thoughts on “Dealing with the Darned Dragon-IV: Exercising (with) the Nuclear Option

  1. An interesting thought process of exercising the nuclear option has been brought out. I am sure the sequence, actions and options required to be considered in case of a first strike by our adversaries are being weighed, analysed, wargamed and brainstormed by our brains in our Nuclear Command. But it is also to be understood that the surveillance technology and agencies existing to monitor are far more exact and numerous today than during the Petrov incident. Many countries are involved in monitoring through satellites and intelligence networks. Anti Missile weapon systems too are prevalent. Nuclear submarines of our Navy and those of our friendly countries too are lurking at striking distances. Any country would think twice before commencing a nuclear attack.

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  2. A nuclear exchange between Pak and India would fit the ultimate strategic objectives of china perfectly to achieve its designs for South Asia as it will give it an absolute freehand to unroll its plans for this region without any questioning or resistance.

    If a two front war does take place, for which the possibility in the coming months are extremely high, China’s psychological war capabilities are quite adequate for it create the necessary conditions and circumstances in which pak military brass is psychologically mainipulated to such an extent that it is compelled to press the first nuclear button against India. India would respond automatically.

    This can happen if the conflict on western front unfolds itself in such a manner that Pak Army is completely cornered and left with no choice but to surrender itself to the Indian Army in a humiliating manner.

    China can covertly and insidiously ensure such a situation in c this onflict and use Pak as a sacrificial goat to defeat India in a mutually assured destruction scenario between India & Pak.

    This way China can destroy both India and Pakistan without taking the blame on itself for the nuclear holocaust in Asia.

    India must factor this angle in its wargaming matrix and have strategies ready to tackle & nuetralise such an un-usual and out of box contingency.

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  3. A nuclear exchange between Pak and India would fit the ultimate strategic objectives of china perfectly to achieve its designs for South Asia as it will give it an absolute freehand to unroll its plans for this region without any questioning or resistance.

    When a two front war takes place, for which the possibility in the coming months are extremely high, China’s psychological war capabilities are quite competent to create the necessary conditions and circumstances in which pak military brass is psychologically mainipulated to such an extent that it is compelled to press the first nuclear button against India. India would respond naturally and automatically.

    This can happen if the conflict on western front unfolds itself in such a manner that Pak Army is completely cornered and left with no choice but to surrender itself to the Indian Army in a humiliating manner.

    China can covertly and insidiously ensure such a situation in this conflict in which Pak is used as a sacrificial goat to defeat India in a mutually assured destruction scenario between India & Pak.

    Indian war gaming matrix must factor the possibility of such a contingency on the western front and be prepared with a strategy to tackle and neutralize such a possibility .

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  4. Always worthwhile to revise and correct even if it is close to the exam day.Would have liked to know more of the command chain from the first man to the trigger and the launch platforms in air,land and sea(?) – how good or rusty they are.Maybe,the author due confidentiality reasons has been reticent.Though,it is my read that the nuclear command,if at all,is still an embryonic concept or we are too good at keeping secrets. Only,it should not mean that the command chain itself,on a need-to-know-basis overdoes this literally to be counter-productive.
    As an aside,since humor is a great way to tell hard truths readers may like to re-look at that classic dark movie – called Dr Strangelove with that crazy humored Peter Sellers doing a quadraple role.

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