Gaza: The Hostage Issue

Is there a way to put immediate stop to suffering in Gaza?

O Gaza!

The events of October 7 served as the immediate trigger, but the roots of the Gaza conflict extend far deeper. The underlying causes are complex and subject to debate, with little likelihood of consensus. For this reason, reducing the war to a binary of good versus evil oversimplifies the situation. Meanwhile, the human toll continues to rise, with thousands killed by bombardment and many more affected by hunger and displacement.

Recent decision by France, Australia, and the United Kingdom, to recognise Palestine, though politically significant, is unlikely to resolve the immediate challenges. Rather, it highlights the difficulty the international community has faced in addressing the conflict.

Israel’s Objectives

Israel’s stated aims can be broadly identified as:

• Destruction of Hamas,

• Release of the hostages,

• Ensuring Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel, and

• Return of displaced residents of northern Israel.

The feasibility of achieving all four goals simultaneously remains uncertain.

Prospects of Eliminating Hamas

Military operations may succeed in neutralising most Hamas operatives within Gaza. However, complete elimination appears unlikely. Those who escape are likely to regroup elsewhere. Also, displaced Palestinians will carry their wounds and scars to other parts of the world. No border control can prevent the smuggling of hatred and anger. It would be naïve to imagine that some of them would not be behind a “9/11 (Version 2.0),” if and when such an attack happens anywhere in the world. One does not need Nostradamus to foresee this.

The Hostage Question

Israel does not follow a rigid hostage policy and has, in the past, agreed to prisoner swaps. During the Entebbe Raid (July 1976), the hijackers’ demand for the release of Palestinians in Israeli prisons was actively considered, even as preparations for Operation Thunderbolt (later renamed Operation Jonathan) went ahead. The mission was deliberate and well planned. Jonathan Netanyahu (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s brother) sacrificed his life to rescue 104 Israeli hostages. One hostage, hospitalised in Uganda, later died under unclear circumstances.

In another instance, Kozo Okamoto of the Japanese Red Army—who, along with two comrades, killed 32 people and injured 72 at Lod Airport (now Ben Gurion Airport) on May 30, 1972—was captured alive. Israel, which has no death penalty, imprisoned him. Yet on May 20, 1985, nearly 13 years later, Okamoto was released as part of a prisoner swap. On that occasion, 4,600 Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners were freed in exchange for three Israeli soldiers.

Why then, despite immense pressure from the families of hostages and international opinion, has Israel been unwilling to proceed with more prisoner swaps? Here one tends to agree with Prime Minister Netanyahu and others: conceding to Hamas’s demands would amount to “rewarding” them for the October 7 attacks.

Other Goals

The other two aims—ensuring Gaza no longer poses a threat and facilitating the return of displaced residents of northern Israel—are relatively less difficult to address once the hostage issue is resolved.

At present, the deadlock lies with Hamas. They know well that releasing the remaining Israeli hostages (and the bodies of the dead) would spell their end. They would be hunted down and eliminated. That fate seems inevitable anyway.

***If only one of these sufferings could offset the other…***

A Possible Way Out?

What could break the impasse?

One possible—though imperfect—approach could involve offering safe passage for Hamas operatives out of Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages. Such an arrangement might drastically reduce civilian casualties, but it would raise questions about long-term security and the precedent it sets. Whether Israel, and Hamas, would accept such a suggestion remains uncertain.

In the fog of war, it is unclear whether both sides are already working toward a face-saving exit. Meanwhile, frustration and anger are mounting across a world that feels trapped in a seemingly hopeless situation. In the absence of a negotiated settlement, the conflict is likely to continue at great humanitarian cost.

A Warning for India

The dilemma is not unique to Israel. Sooner or later, India too may face a similar horrific choice: how should it deal with terrorists who, after striking a target, hide behind civilian population in India or, still worse, across the border in Pakistan?

The Policy Paradox: When American Policies Rewrite Global Fates

Gazans need food, water and medicines; not, contraceptives.

The dramatic drop in crime rates across the United States in the 1990s sparked intense debates about its underlying causes. Pundits credited economic growth, stricter gun control, a crackdown on drug trafficking, improved policing, and increased use of capital punishment. However, Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, authors of Freakonomics, proposed a controversial yet compelling theory: the legalization of abortion following the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Roe v. Wade ruling on January 22, 1973, played a pivotal role.

With abortion legally accessible, many pregnancies that might have resulted in unwanted children—often born into poverty and unstable environments—were terminated. Had these children been born, it was argued, many would have grown up in circumstances that increased their likelihood of engaging in criminal activity.

If this theory holds, a chilling corollary emerges: The United States is poised for an unprecedented surge in crime a decade and a half from now. As expected, experts will scramble for explanations, but this time, the reason will be glaringly obvious—the recent reversal of Roe v. Wade.

While rising crime in America may be a domestic concern, the consequences of its policies extend far beyond its borders. U.S. foreign policy often mirrors the contradictions in its domestic decisions, particularly in the Middle East. Nowhere is this clearer than in its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Successive U.S. administrations have adopted a selective stance on demographic control. During the Intifada of the early 1990s, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat famously declared, “The womb of the Arab woman is my strongest weapon.” At the time, fertility rates in Gaza soared to an astounding 8.3 births per woman—nearly three times that of Israeli Jews. Alarmed by the demographic shift, the U.S. actively supported birth control programs in Palestine while simultaneously offering unwavering military and moral support to Israel.

Fast forward to today, and the consequences are staggering. Since October 7, 2023, nearly 44,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, with deaths continuing even after a precarious ceasefire—first from bombings, now from hunger and the collapse of medical care.

Adding to the crisis, the U.S. has halted all foreign aid, including a modest yet symbolically significant $5 million designated for contraceptive supplies in Gaza. But if and when aid is restored, the priority should be clear: food and life-saving medicines, not birth control. As America’s policies continue to shape lives—both within and beyond its borders—the world watches. Whether on the streets of New York or the alleyways of Gaza, the consequences of U.S. decisions are neither isolated nor incidental. Perhaps it is time for the architects of these policies to reckon with the paradox they have created:

A nation that dictates life and death struggles to control its own fate.

© [Group Captain Ashok K Chordia] [2025]
All Rights Reserved
No part of this website/Blog or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied, modified or adapted, without the prior written consent of the author. Extracts may be quoted from the website or link to the website may be forwarded with attribution to “Road Much Travelled.” For any other mode of sharing, contact the author @ (akchordia@gmail.com)

Comments

Air Commodore ROJ Assey (IAF Veteran): Thanks, Ashok.
Very thought provoking, indeed.
I have never come across – or imagined the concept of ‘Roe vs Wade’ being a significant factor in crime control – fascinating. Some of us may be around to see it, too. Superb writing, as usual – and fascinating reading. Warm regards. ~ Rod

Lost in Translation: The Gaza War

If only vibes too could be translated!

Drawing inferences or lessons is an art.

A researcher placed a frog on a table and snapped, “Froggie jump!”

The frog jumped and landed two feet away.

The man, in quest of knowledge, scribbled an observation on his notepad and put the frog back at the starting point and chopped one of its hind legs. “Froggie jump!” he yelled again retaining the pitch and the loudness of the previous occasion.

The frog jumped. This time, it landed just about a foot away.

With great anticipation, the academic chopped the other hind leg of the helpless being and repeated the exercise. The profusely bleeding frog didn’t move an inch. The scholar repeated, “Froggie jump,” several times, varying the pitch and loudness of his command.

Then, with the air of an Archimedes discovering the principle of buoyancy, he noted: “A frog becomes deaf when its hind legs are severed.”

In a study on the impact of major historical events on the environment, published over a dozen years ago, it was theorised that some occurances could have impacted the climate due to the return of forests after depopulation; one of the events studied was the Mongol invasion of the 13^th and 14^th Century. It was revealed that 40 million deaths during the Mongol conquests caused large areas of cultivated land to grow thick once again with trees, which absorbed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Ecologists believe it may be one of the first ever cases of successful man-made global cooling. Thus, Genghis Khan was the greenest invader in history.

The ecologists who arrived at the green conclusion didn’t have the tools or, more probably, they didn’t have the inclination to comment on the kind of 40 million people killed by the Green Genghis. Among those put to sword, there could have been artists, painters, thinkers and social scientists who might have put the earth back on a greener track? May be. May not be.

It is only a matter of time, some social scientist, somewhere, will draw similar conclusions about the (good) environmental impact of the recent wars. More than 90 million (including civilians) have died in the wars since WW I (including only the major wars with casualties in excess of 25,000). Blame it on the fog of war—this estimate of ~90 million⁺ could be grossly incorrect. This figure does not include the Covid deaths.

Most wars have their genesis in the failure of dialogue and diplomacy. And when two sides do go to war, they fight to win it, and impose their will on the vanquished. Incidentally, the numbers that die on one side are not compensated by the number killed on the other side—they add up. In military academies and war colleges all over the world, they teach the art and the Principles of War. The knowledge gleaned from the writings of Kautilya, Sun Tzu, Clausewitz and their ilk, is passed on from a generation to another. The future leaders study campaigns, and try to figure out whether or not the military wisdom of the yore was put to use. The effort is to establish, to what extent the victor and the vanquished adhered to the proven warfighting tactics/ strategy.

The Ukraine War and, now the War in Gaza (some call it the War on Gaza, and with good reason, which depends where they stand and how their glasses are tinted), has necessitated the need to refine and redefine warfighting for the ones executing the will of the political leadership. A few might agree (most others will agree absolutely) to cram the sum and substance of all military knowledge in just four words: “LIVE AND LET DIE!”

“Live and let die!” that is what exactly the Ukrainians, the Russians, the Israelis and the members of Hamas are trying to achieve even as the cheerleaders, the US, the UK, the NATO and Iran etc are eagerly awaiting the opportunity to enter the fray.

Meanwhile, in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the ‘genocide’ issue led to an animated debate. South African advocates painted a vivid picture of Israeli atrocities in Gaza. The Israeli rebuttal was passionate and strong. Rhetoric at the Hague boiled down to the definition of ‘genocide’ and ‘the intention to kill.’ At one point, the chair had to advise the Israeli representative to go slow to enable the translators and interpreters to keep pace. Speed notwithstanding, it is axiomatic that some meaning is always lost in translation. How then, can one expect people to understand each other, let alone be sympathetic? There is no way yet, to translate the ‘vibes.’ It is no wonder then, that the interim order of a toothless ICJ sounds so hesitant. The UN body has directed Israel to prevent genocide (mind the subtle difference between ‘preventing’ and ‘stopping’) in Gaza. As it stands, the ICJ is certainly not blaming Israel for the said crime. It has not ordered an immediate ceasefire.

The Gaza War has the potential to engulf many more actors and stakeholders in its raging flames. It is an unparalleled crisis. It is said that the worst corners of hell are reserved for those who maintain neutrality in times of crisis.

Time is NOW to speak up and work towards preventing further bloodshed.

Many wrongs have been committed since the birth of Israel in 1948. All those wrongs do not add up to make a right. They also do not justify either the Hamas raid on Israel on October 7, 2023 or the Israeli action following that attack. One of the possible ways out of the present crisis is the release of the Israeli hostages followed immediately by a ceasefire. If Israel decides to continue to pursue its aim of eliminating Hamas even after release of its hostages, it might succeed in its mission (although that is an extremely doubtful proposition) but in the process, it will sow the seeds for still worse to happen.

The writing on the wall is legible and clear. May sense prevail.

Tathastu!

Comments

Colonel Jamshed Hussain (Veteran) — Reasons are invented to justify most violent actions, including wars. Winners prevail, hence history is recorded as viewed by a victor. Seeds sown by imperial powers of yesteryears, will continue to fester conflicts…So Gazas and Ukraines will continue.. Ashok👍

Air Commodore Roj Assey (Veteran) — Very well written, Ashok.
I have a video clip of the Israeli ambassador speaking at the UN, a couple of weeks ago. He made two major points ….
If Hamas returns all the hostages, Israel will stop its offensive the next day.
Nothing is more important to Israel than its own survival – irrespective of what the world does, or thinks.
On the first point, this statement was made by an official rep of Israel and is a guarantee made in front of a world audience.
On the second point, ever since Israel declared its independence on 14 May 1948, after the dramatic Resolution taken in the UN on 29 Nov 1947, Israel has had to fight for its survival. A Russian Mig or an Israeli Mirage takes only a few minutes to cross the entire country of Israel.
There has been an enormous amount of heated, prejudiced, passionate and emotional talk and writing about the crisis. How much of it is true, depends, as you very aptly quoted, on how the glasses are tinted. I would suggest that 99 per cent – at least – of what is written, is a mix of fact and outright fiction.
But I cannot fault Israel’s desire to survive.